Market Report: Weekly DOE Oil Charts

Our quick take on the WEEKLY SUPPLY ESTIMATES published by the US Department of Energy (DOE) including detailed tables and charts. This week’s highlights:

  • Small build in total petroleum stocks of 1mb, lower than seasonal average build is 3.2mb.
  • However, consensus expectations were for a 2.4mb draw in crude and main products  build was 4.2mb larger than expected
  • Cushing stocks saw a >1mb build which pushed them to new all time high
  • Implied demand saw a 170kb/d weekly decline vs 170kb/d weekly seasonal increase. But total demand still up 250kb/d year-over-year.
  • The much quoted mogas demand was down 280kb/d w-o-w but flat vs same week last year.
  • Total net imports still down y-o-y in the 4 week average but this weeks net imports were flat vs last year
  • Refinery utilization up 1.5% and crude inputs up 200kb/d,
  • Mogas output down 500kb/d which seems at odds with higher refinery runs. Blending component input was down however and the mogas adjustment term flipped by over 400kb/d
  • Crude output keeps moving up again, +50kb/d w-o-w or -180kb/d y-o-y. Crude + adjustment is up 280kb/d w-o-w and +30kb/d y-o-y. However, given the large errors in the data (e.g. exports), the adj. factor contains a lot of noise

Conclusion: neutral

View the Entire Research Piece as a PDF here.


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